Lower housing prices drive lower land prices. Housing prices are determined by income distribution and housing availability, and land prices are determined by housing prices minus construction and maintenance costs.
Upzoning reduces land prices by increasing housing supply, dropping housing prices, and thus reducing the income stream of the property, so that a constant minimum return on investment of the property allows a lower purchase price.
“Since upzoning increased the size of the MHS and MHU zoning categories, we predict that the land price of the initial parcels decreased.” I’m interested in this research. My non-economic observations in Auckland indicate that both the land price of MHS has risen as it has become a more desirable zone and the MHU has become more valuable due to the higher densities enabled. It is not until after redevelopment that the land value per unit decreases. I hope I am understanding you correctly - that you are not concerned with the number of units on the land, just the undeveloped land value. Correct me if I’m wrong.
As an aside, I believe the number of MHS sites has decreased as many MHS have been upzoned to MHU.
I am a planner working in Auckland would be happy to discuss our situation here.
We expect a decrease in land price for existing higher-density land when the supply increases.
Eg. 3461 MHS parcels didn't change zoning status; since the MHS category increased from 18k to 88k parcels, the price of the initial 3461 should fall. Similarly, there were 4880 MHU parcels that remained MHU; the category increased in size from 25k to 48k, so the increased competition will decrease the price of the initial 4880 parcels.
Lower housing prices drive lower land prices. Housing prices are determined by income distribution and housing availability, and land prices are determined by housing prices minus construction and maintenance costs.
Upzoning reduces land prices by increasing housing supply, dropping housing prices, and thus reducing the income stream of the property, so that a constant minimum return on investment of the property allows a lower purchase price.
“Since upzoning increased the size of the MHS and MHU zoning categories, we predict that the land price of the initial parcels decreased.” I’m interested in this research. My non-economic observations in Auckland indicate that both the land price of MHS has risen as it has become a more desirable zone and the MHU has become more valuable due to the higher densities enabled. It is not until after redevelopment that the land value per unit decreases. I hope I am understanding you correctly - that you are not concerned with the number of units on the land, just the undeveloped land value. Correct me if I’m wrong.
As an aside, I believe the number of MHS sites has decreased as many MHS have been upzoned to MHU.
I am a planner working in Auckland would be happy to discuss our situation here.
We expect a decrease in land price for existing higher-density land when the supply increases.
Eg. 3461 MHS parcels didn't change zoning status; since the MHS category increased from 18k to 88k parcels, the price of the initial 3461 should fall. Similarly, there were 4880 MHU parcels that remained MHU; the category increased in size from 25k to 48k, so the increased competition will decrease the price of the initial 4880 parcels.
Data from Table 2:
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00420980231190281
Ryan, Geoff and James probably have useful data for Auckland for you
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00779954.2025.2536257#d1e1087
You probably want to talk to Gary Blick, I think.
See e.g. https://ourauckland.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/news/2025/09/where-aucklanders-want-to-live/